A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
